Despite all the uncertainty surrounding tax reform, analysts at boutique investment firm Bretton Woods Research cite seven reasons they think a tax cut will pass this year:
1. Chief of Staff John Kelly is bringing order to the White House, boosting the administration’s effectiveness.
2. President Trump’s approval ratings are climbing significantly as he deals with the effects of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma.
3. The most capable members of the administration — Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Office of Management and Budget Director Mick Mulvaney — are leading the effort.
4. House Republicans are willing to “ditch revenue neutrality” in pursuit of growth — and that includes Speaker Paul Ryan and Freedom Caucus members Mark Meadows and Jim Jordan.
5. The Senate will not stand in the way of tax cuts. “If the ‘Skinny Repeal’ amendment on Obamacare failed by one vote, we are 100% sure tax cuts will succeed,” the analysts write.
6. President Trump is courting Democrats, and will continue to do so throughout the fall, which means a bipartisan tax deal is still a real possibility.
7. The debt ceiling is no longer an issue in 2017, keeping the policy focus on tax cuts and economic growth.